dollar continues its downward trajectory

🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar Weakness Intensifies
The U.S. dollar continues its downward trajectory, with the dollar index falling 3% in March and an additional 4.5% in April, reaching near three-year lows. This decline is attributed to tariff-driven capital outflows, downgraded U.S. growth forecasts, and shifting investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of a U.S. recession, while Barclays anticipates one as early as the second half of 2025 .​

🇪🇺 ECB Implements Seventh Rate Cut Amid Trade Tensions
The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its main interest rate for the seventh time this year, citing "exceptional uncertainty" and the adverse economic impact of rising tariffs, particularly those imposed by the U.S. The ECB warns that increased trade tensions are likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, potentially weighing further on the euro area's economic outlook .​

🇯🇵 U.S.-Japan Trade Talks Show "Big Progress"
U.S. President Donald Trump made an unexpected appearance at trade talks with Japan, initially causing market anxiety. However, his assertion of "big progress" in the discussions led to a positive market response, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.6%. Japan is the first major trading partner to negotiate over new U.S. tariffs, setting a precedent for over 70 nations seeking exemptions .​

📊 Economic Calendar Highlights
For today, April 18, 2025, the forex economic calendar is relatively light. Notably, Poland's Producer Price Index (PPI) for March is scheduled for release at 5:00 AM US Eastern Time .​