The euro has strengthened against the dollar
🔸 The forex market for the week of May 26–30, 2025, is poised for significant movements influenced by recent geopolitical developments, central bank policies, and technical market trends. Here's an overview of key currency pairs and factors to watch:
🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD): Under Pressure The U.S. dollar continues to face downward pressure due to escalating fiscal concerns and unpredictable trade policies. President Trump's recent decision to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9 has temporarily eased market tensions, leading to a decline in the dollar's value. Additionally, JP Morgan anticipates that the U.S. dollar will remain weak throughout 2025, potentially benefiting emerging market assets.
💶 EUR/USD: Bullish Momentum The euro has strengthened against the dollar, reaching levels around $1.1418. Analysts suggest that if the euro maintains support above 1.1320, it could target resistance levels at 1.1425 and 1.1530. However, a drop below 1.1275 might expose the pair to downside risks towards 1.1200.
🇬🇧 GBP/USD: Testing Key Resistance The British pound is exhibiting strength, breaking above the significant resistance level of 1.3440. If this breakout holds, the next targets could be 1.3630 and potentially the 2022 high at 1.3750. Conversely, a failure to sustain above 1.3440 may lead to a retracement towards 1.3300.
🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Bearish Outlook The USD/CHF pair has broken below its 0.8330 support level, opening the path towards the 0.8200 support area. The pair also exited its ascending channel, indicating a potential bearish trend continuation. A sustained break below 0.8200 could expose the 0.8100 April lows.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Yen Strengthens The Japanese yen is gaining strength amid global economic uncertainties and rising expectations of further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. The USD/JPY pair is experiencing downward pressure, with potential targets around 142.35.
🇦🇺 AUD/USD: Cautious Optimism The Australian dollar is showing signs of recovery, trading around 0.6537. Analysts anticipate that the AUD could regain some ground in the second half of the year, although upcoming elections in May 2025 could influence monetary policy decisions and alter trajectories.
🪙 Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bullish Correction Bitcoin experienced a notable decline, closing at $107,216.70 on May 24, 2025, down from its all-time high of $111,891.30 reached on May 22. This pullback suggests a bearish correction within the prevailing bullish trend. A test of the support area near $103,405 is anticipated, with a potential rebound targeting levels above $136,505. A breach below $94,605 would invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating a possible decline towards $86,505.
📅 Key Events to Watch U.S. Economic Data: Markets will closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data releases for signs of a slowdown resulting from the tariffs.
Central Bank Policies: Decisions and statements from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, will be pivotal in shaping currency movements.
Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing trade negotiations and potential policy shifts, especially related to U.S. tariffs, will influence market sentiment.