Markets Eye UK Inflation Data
💹 Pound Holds Steady Against US Dollar Ahead of Trump–Zelensky Meeting – Markets Focus on UK Inflation Data and Jackson Hole Symposium 🗓 August 18, 2025 | FX Market Analysis Desk
On Monday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a tight range around 1.3550 during European hours, as traders kept a close eye on a high-stakes White House meeting between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO representatives. The talks aim to review proposals put forward by Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
On Friday in Alaska, Trump met with Putin who, according to Reuters, suggested freezing the front lines in most sectors, in exchange for Russia’s full control over the industrial Donetsk region. Zelensky has firmly rejected the idea.
In the run-up to this meeting, market sentiment remains relatively stable, with S&P 500 futures edging 0.13% higher to 6,460 points. Analysts note that any signal of a potential ceasefire could support risk assets, although markets have largely priced in the ongoing war’s impact.
📊 Key Economic Data on Watch Investors this week await July UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due Wednesday. Estimates point to core inflation (excluding volatile components such as energy and food) rising 3.7% year-on-year. Persistent price pressures could keep the Bank of England on its “slow and cautious” monetary policy path, reaffirmed in its last meeting after a 25 bps rate cut to 4.25%.
Across the Atlantic, the main driver for the US dollar this week will be the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from August 21–23. Remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could sharpen market expectations for the policy rate path. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to stabilize just above a three-week low, around 97.60.
Following the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which indicated a cooling in US labor market momentum and boosted expectations for a September rate cut, the dollar has underperformed. CME FedWatch Tool data shows an 82.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. In a recent interview, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted there is room for a cut in September — and possibly two by year-end — although the July Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected.
📈 Technical Analysis