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Peace Talks Cap Oil Rally

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Peace Talks Cap Oil Rally

Oil Holds Near $62.50

 

🛢 WTI climbs toward $62.50 – US Oil stock draw and peace talks in focus

News | August 20, 2025 – 07:58:33 GMT | By Akhtar Faruqui

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rebounded from the previous session’s losses during early European trading on Wednesday, hovering around $62.30 per barrel. The recovery was largely driven by a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 15, signaling stronger demand ahead.

The latest report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed a 2.4 million barrel drop in US oil stockpiles, surpassing market expectations for a 1.2 million barrel decrease, according to the API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin.


📅 Geopolitical developments: Ukraine–Russia peace prospects

Despite the support from tighter supply, optimism over possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia could limit further gains. A resolution to the conflict could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially boosting global oil supply.

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that plans are underway for a bilateral meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as reported by CNN. However, Russia has not yet confirmed its participation.

US President Donald Trump also stated that the United States would not deploy ground troops to enforce any potential peace agreement, while negotiations on security guarantees remain ongoing between Washington, European allies, and Kyiv.


📊 Market support from dovish Fed outlook

Crude prices are also finding support from the dovish sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming September policy decision. Lower interest rates could stimulate economic activity in the United States — the world’s largest oil consumer — thereby boosting energy demand.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the FOMC Minutes from the July meeting later in the North American session. Market attention will also shift to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Thursday, with remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to offer guidance on the September rate decision.


📝 Summary snapshot

  • Short-term bias: Mildly bullish, capped by supply risk
  • Support levels: $61.80 / $61.20
  • Resistance levels: $62.50 / $63.20
  • Bullish drivers: US stockpile draw, dovish Fed tone
  • Bearish risks: Potential supply increase if peace deal advances
  • Overall tone: Recovery in progress, but gains vulnerable to geopolitical shifts
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