Gold Rally Gains Momentum
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its strong bid tone heading into the European session on Monday and remains well within striking distance of the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April. Despite signs of stubborn inflation, traders seem convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this month. The outlook drags the U.S. Dollar (USD) lower and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Furthermore, growing concerns about the Fed’s independence turn out to be another factor contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding the USD.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index held steady at 2.6% in July. Moreover, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged higher to 2.9% during the reported month from June's rise of 2.8%, matching analysts' estimates.
The data reaffirmed bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of a two-day meeting on September 17 and deliver at least two interest rate cuts by the year-end.
The U.S. President dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. Cook filed a lawsuit and refused to step down, raising concerns about the central bank's autonomy. Cook's departure would give the U.S. President another appointment to the Fed's seven-member board and command a majority for the first time in decades.
The U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of this week's important U.S. macro releases scheduled at the start of a new month, including the closely-watched U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical perspective, Friday's breakout through the $3,440 supply zone, or the top boundary of over a three-month-old trading range, was seen as a fresh trigger for the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and back the case for a further appreciating move.
However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the verge of breaking into the overbought territory, suggesting that Gold could pause for a breather near the $3,500 psychological mark, or the all-time peak touched in April.
On the downside, any corrective pullback might now find decent support near the $3,440 resistance-turned-support level. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited near the $3,400 round figure. A decisive break below this level might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses, with the XAU/USD potentially declining towards the $3,372 intermediate support en route to the $3,350 region.