Institutional Demand Supports Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovers above $109,000 as Fed rate cut bets offset cautious sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC) started the week in recovery mode on Monday, trading above $109,000 after a nearly 5% decline in the previous week. Institutional demand helped cushion the downside, as Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced the purchase of an additional 1,009 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 20,000 BTC. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded over $440 million in weekly inflows.
Despite lingering caution in broader markets, traders continue to bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its September meeting, providing support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has fallen nearly 14% from its all-time high of $124,474 on August 14 to a low of $107,350 on Saturday. The correction was largely driven by last week’s hotter-than-expected U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for July.
However, CME FedWatch Tool data shows an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 85% before the PCE release. Such expectations could weigh on the U.S. Dollar and boost risk-on sentiment, supporting a rebound in BTC.
Historical data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has typically delivered negative returns in September, averaging a 3.50% loss. Still, a Fed rate cut combined with strong ETF inflows and corporate demand could help BTC post gains this month.
Corporate and institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong despite the recent pullback. Metaplanet’s latest purchase underscores this trend.
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $440.71 million in inflows last week, compared to $1.17 billion in outflows the week before. Sustained and growing inflows could pave the way for a stronger recovery.
BTC faced rejection from its previously broken ascending trendline on August 23, falling 7.43% through Sunday. As of Monday, it has rebounded slightly, trading near $109,600.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC shows a bullish RSI divergence — a lower low in price alongside higher highs in RSI — often signaling a potential reversal or short-term rally.
If BTC breaks above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart at $110,650, it could extend gains toward the August 22 high of $117,429. Conversely, a drop below current supports could see BTC test the weekly support at $104,463.