Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Fed Speculation
Bitcoin (BTC) continues its recovery, trading near $112,000 on Friday, up nearly 4% this week after a 4.62% decline last week. The rebound is fueled by growing institutional and corporate demand, while market participants remain cautious ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook and provide fresh direction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
After a three-week downtrend from its all-time high of $124,474 to a low of $107,255 on Monday, Bitcoin began to recover, hovering around $112,000 during Friday’s European session.
The recovery gained momentum following Wednesday’s JOLTS job openings data, which signaled a cooling U.S. labor market and reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 99.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. Dollar and boost risk-on sentiment, supporting assets like Bitcoin. Markets also anticipate at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, which could further lift BTC prices.
Thursday’s ADP report showed U.S. private-sector employers added just 54,000 jobs in August, down from July’s revised figure of 106,000 and below expectations of 65,000.
However, all eyes are on Friday’s official NFP report, scheduled for 12:30 GMT, which could offer more clarity on the Fed’s policy path and influence Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin’s recovery this week has been supported by strong inflows into spot ETFs and corporate purchases. SoSoValue data shows $406.6 million in ETF inflows as of Thursday, marking the second consecutive week of positive flows—though still below mid-July levels when BTC surged toward $120,000.
On the corporate side, Nasdaq-listed CIMG Inc. announced the sale of 220 million common shares, raising $55 million to acquire 500 BTC as part of its long-term reserve strategy.
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet added 1,009 BTC on Monday, bringing its total holdings to 20,000 BTC. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor increased the dividend on STRC preferred stock from 9% to 10%, a strategic move to leverage Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings.
A report by Bitcoin financial services firm River revealed that treasury companies are the second-largest buyers of BTC in 2025, acquiring roughly 1,400 BTC daily. Businesses using River allocate an average of 22% of their net income to Bitcoin, with a median allocation of 10%, indicating growing grassroots adoption.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rebounded to 48 this week, signaling neutral sentiment and easing bearish pressure. Last Saturday, the index had dropped to a four-month low, reflecting extreme fear following recent price corrections.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated in an interview with the Financial Times, “Crypto is now an alternative currency with limited supply.” He added that if the supply of fiat currencies like the U.S. Dollar increases or demand falls, crypto could become a more attractive store of value—similar to historical shifts in the 1930s–40s and 1970s–80s.
Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index highlights Bitcoin as the primary gateway into the crypto economy, with over $4.6 trillion in fiat inflows between July 2024 and June 2025—double that of Layer 1 tokens excluding BTC and ETH.
India, the U.S., and Pakistan rank as the top three countries for crypto adoption, followed by Vietnam and Brazil. The Asia-Pacific region led with 69% year-over-year growth in on-chain transactions, while Latin America followed with 63%.
On the 4-hour chart, a bullish RSI divergence on Monday supported the recovery. BTC broke above a descending trendline on Tuesday, retested it Thursday, and now trades near $112,000.
If momentum continues, BTC could target the August 22 high at $117,429. RSI stands at 57, and MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, signaling strengthening momentum.
On the daily chart, BTC closed above the 100-day EMA at $110,753 on Tuesday and held above it throughout the week. RSI is at 47 and trending upward, while MACD shows a bullish crossover.
On the weekly chart, BTC bounced from the early July low of $107,429, gaining nearly 4% this week. If this support holds, BTC could aim for the psychological level of $120,000. RSI reads 56, but MACD remains bearish, suggesting caution.