Durable Goods Data Awaited

Dollar Strength Pressures Euro

United States Durable Goods Orders data and its potential impact on EUR/USD

The release of United States Durable Goods Orders data for August is scheduled today at 12:30 GMT. Forecasts suggest the index will decline for the third consecutive month, though at a slower pace compared to July. Fresh orders are expected to fall by only 0.5%, following a sharp 2.8% contraction in July.

Importance of Durable Goods Orders

This indicator measures new orders placed for goods with a lifespan of more than three years, such as automobiles, industrial equipment, major appliances, and aircraft.
Rising costs for these goods typically signal inflationary pressures, which may push the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward a more hawkish stance on interest rates.
Conversely, declining orders or lower costs reflect easing price pressures, allowing the Fed to adopt a more dovish policy outlook.

Current status of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair trades cautiously around 1.1750 during Thursday’s European session.
After a two‑day recovery move toward 1.1820, the pair has resumed its downside momentum.
The US Dollar remains firm, particularly after the Fed’s recent policy announcement emphasizing caution in further rate cuts.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading near the 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1744, highlighting short‑term uncertainty.
The 14‑day Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates between 40 and 60, indicating a sideways trend.
On the upside, a break above 1.1920 could pave the way toward the psychological 1.2000 level.
On the downside, a drop below 1.1700 could expose the September low at 1.1600.

Conclusion

Markets are focused today on the release of United States Durable Goods Orders. Any deviation from expectations could trigger sharp moves in the US Dollar and, consequently, in EUR/USD. A modest decline in orders is unlikely to weigh heavily on the Dollar, but a sharper‑than‑expected fall could weaken it and support the Euro. Conversely, stronger‑than‑expected data would likely reinforce the Dollar and add further pressure on the Euro.