Manufacturing Momentum Remains Weak

📊 ISM Manufacturing PMI Set to Show Slight Boost in United States Factory Activity

The United States ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge slightly higher in September, signaling a modest improvement in factory activity. Investors are also watching the ISM Prices Index and Employment Index for further clues on inflation and labor trends.

EUR/USD continues to recover from last week’s lows, with market sentiment cautiously optimistic ahead of the PMI release.

🔍 What Is ISM Manufacturing PMI?

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a key gauge of industrial health in the United States.

• A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing.
• A reading below 50.0 signals contraction.

📈 Forecasts and Market Expectations

Analysts expect the September PMI to come in at 49.0, slightly above August’s 48.7, but still within contraction territory.

Despite the sub-50 reading, the broader economy has shown resilience—particularly after the upward revision of Q2 GDP growth. This has reinforced the narrative of United States economic “exceptionalism.”

📊 Breakdown of August Data

• New Orders Index surged to 51.4, a multi-month high.
• Prices Index continued to decline for the second straight month.
• Employment Index rose slightly to 43.8, still below the growth threshold.

While the manufacturing sector remains under pressure, sustained readings above 42.5 can still suggest broader economic expansion.

💬 EUR/USD Outlook

Ahead of the data release, EUR/USD has extended its rebound. However, further gains may depend on a stronger catalyst.

Senior Analyst Pablo Piovano notes:

• Support lies near 1.1570; a break below could target 1.1391.
• Resistance is seen at 1.1918 (September 17 high), with potential to test 1.2000.
• The pair remains constructive above the 200-day SMA at 1.1169.
• RSI hovers around 51, suggesting mild bullish momentum, while ADX at 14 indicates a weak trend.