Institutional Demand Fuels Bitcoin
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Will "Uptober" deliver?
Bitcoin rallies nearly 7% so far this week as a strong month in terms of Bitcoin performance begins. Institutional demand rises, with $2.25 billion in spot ETF inflows, as well as continued BTC purchases from big corporates. Risk-on sentiment strengthens as traders fully price in a Federal Reserve rate cut in October despite the uncertainty from the United States government shutdown.
Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $120,000 at the time of writing on Friday, following a strong weekly rally of nearly 7% amid optimism surrounding the ‘Uptober’ narrative. Institutional demand supports the price rise, with BTC’s spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording a weekly inflow of over $2 billion, while firms such as Metaplanet and Strategy add BTC to their reserves.
Adding to this bullish outlook, risk-on sentiment strengthens as market participants price in an over 97% chance that the United States Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs on October 29.
Bitcoin price closed September on a positive note, with a 5.16% gain, finishing above $114,000. Looking at the quarterly results, BTC’s third quarter as a whole delivered a modest 6.31% gain.
Historical data for Bitcoin shows that October has generally delivered a high return for the cryptocurrency, averaging 20.62%, hence the market terming it as a ‘Uptober’ rally. For the past 11 years (from 2013 to 2024), BTC has had a positive return nine times.
Adding to this optimism, the fourth quarter (Q4) has also been the best quarter for BTC, with an average of 78.88% gains. If such a pattern repeats in 2025, BTC could reach new highs by the end of the year.
Bitcoin’s rally was supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions this week even as the United States government began a shutdown after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. The news pressured the United States Dollar (USD), which slipped under modest selling pressure, and with BTC’s inverse correlation to the USD, the cryptocurrency surged.
Adding to this, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that private-sector employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, marking the biggest drop since March 2023. Moreover, the August payrolls number was revised to show a loss of 3,000, compared to an increase of 54,000 initially reported. The data reinforced bets for two more interest-rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve by the year-end.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an over 97% chance that the United States Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points on October 29.