BTC Holds Above Support
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC edges below $124,000 after hitting record highs
Bitcoin (BTC) trades below $124,000 on Tuesday after notching a new all-time high of $126,199 the previous day. Strong inflows into United States–listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to underpin demand. Meanwhile, analysts caution that minor pullbacks are possible, even as the broader outlook for the fourth quarter remains bullish.
According to SoSoValue data, institutional demand started the week on a positive note, as Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total of $1.21 billion in inflows on Monday, continuing their six-day streak since September 29. In the previous week, ETF flows recorded net inflows of $3.24 billion, their largest in 2025 and the second-largest on record.
Citadel founder Ken Griffin told Bloomberg on Monday that investors are turning to Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin in a “debasement trade,” seeking assets seen as safer than the United States Dollar — a shift he called “really concerning.”
He warned of “substantial asset inflation away from the Dollar” as investors move to de-Dollarize and reduce exposure to United States sovereign risk.
On-chain metrics indicate that BTC holders are realizing profits as the cryptocurrency hits record highs. Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) showed multiple spikes on Sunday and Monday, signaling that holders are selling at significant profit, which increases selling pressure.
A Bitfinex analyst told FXStreet: “Owing to its strong correlation with traditional finance, the broader liquidity cycle, and options market seasonality, the cryptocurrency market has historically tended to rally in October following weak Septembers.”
Historically, October — often dubbed “Uptober” — has delivered positive returns in nine of the past eleven years, averaging gains of roughly 21%. Q4 has also consistently been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with average returns of nearly 80%.
While minor corrections remain possible, the broader context continues to favor a bullish fourth quarter. Supportive factors include a dovish Federal Reserve stance, easing inflation in the United States, renewed ETF inflows, and stable on-chain support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 69, down from overbought levels, suggesting a potential slowdown in bullish momentum and short-term consolidation.