Bitcoin rebounds despite ETF uncertainty
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Reclaims $110,000 Despite Mixed ETF Flows
On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) successfully reclaimed the $110,000 level after facing rejection from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $113,423 earlier in the week. Despite mixed flows in spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), historical data suggests the current market structure could pave the way for a recovery phase in the coming weeks.
According to a report published Wednesday by Copper Research, October’s market setup closely mirrors Bitcoin’s historical fear cycle. The recent dip to $102,000 may represent a market exhaustion point, potentially setting the stage for a recovery toward the $125,000–$130,000 range by mid-December.
The report analyzed over 40 fear events since 2024, normalized across an 84-day window to capture the full Fear-to-Recovery cycle. The October pattern includes a sharp 10% correction, followed by an 11-day consolidation, and a statistical bias toward a 15–30% recovery over the next 8–12 weeks. While short-term sentiment remains cautious, the data suggests fear is acting as a reset rather than a reversal.
Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet: “Every time fear grips the market, the data tells a similar story—Bitcoin tends to pull back sharply, then rebound harder.” He added, “This latest dip to around $103,000 looks very much like the exhaustion point we’ve seen in past cycles. If that holds, historical data suggests we could be in the early stages of a recovery phase.”
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETF flows have been mixed this week:
These fluctuations reflect indecision among institutional investors, who appear to be adopting a cautious stance amid ongoing market uncertainty.
Glassnode’s weekly report highlights that BTC has corrected below the short-term holders’ cost basis at $113,100. Additionally, the drop below the 0.85 quantile level at $108,600 signals demand exhaustion, as the market struggles to attract new inflows while long-term holders continue to distribute.
If the correction continues, Bitcoin may revisit the 0.75 quantile level, currently around $97,500. This suggests the Bitcoin network may require an extended consolidation phase to rebuild market confidence.
In the options market, positioning remains defensive. Despite record-high open interest, put skew is elevated, volatility sellers are under pressure, and short-term rallies are met with hedging rather than optimism.
On the BTC/USDT daily chart, Bitcoin declined 2.68% after rejecting the 50-day EMA and retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $106,453. At the time of writing, BTC trades slightly above $109,500.
If the $106,453 support holds, Bitcoin could extend its recovery toward the 50-day EMA at $113,423. A successful close above this level may open the path toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $115,137.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 is pointing upward, suggesting early signs of fading bearish momentum. For the recovery to sustain, RSI must break above the neutral 50 level. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are converging toward a bullish crossover, which could further support the recovery.