German ZEW Survey Boosts Euro Outlook
The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and Current Situation Index at 10:00 GMT on Tuesday.
Expectations suggest the Economic Sentiment Index for Germany will improve to 40.0 in November, up from 39.3 in October. The Current Situation Sub-Index is also projected to rise to -77.5, compared to the previous reading of -80.0.
For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Index is expected to increase to 23.5, up from 22.7 last month.
If the ZEW data meets expectations, the EUR/USD pair may find support and limit its downside. Traders are also watching upcoming German inflation figures—particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for October—to better assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook.
The Euro could gain further support amid cautious expectations surrounding ECB’s next moves. Most analysts believe the ECB will hold interest rates steady for now, citing stable economic performance and inflation near target. Money markets currently price in only a 40% chance of a rate cut by September 2026.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has strengthened as optimism grows around the resolution of the government shutdown. The United States Senate passed a funding bill with a 60–40 vote, effectively ending the 41-day shutdown. Eight Democrats joined Republicans to advance the measure, which now moves to the House of Representatives for approval.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading flat around 99.60, reflecting cautious optimism.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading near 1.1560, with a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, suggesting continued downside momentum. Immediate support lies at the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1554.
On the upside, resistance is seen at the psychological level of 1.1600, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.1622.
The ZEW Survey could provide short-term support for the Euro if results exceed expectations. However, traders will remain focused on inflation data and ECB commentary for clearer guidance on monetary policy. The broader direction of EUR/USD will also depend on developments in the United States, including fiscal policy and Federal Reserve decisions.