U.S. Government Reopens, January Still Uncertain
After a record-breaking 43-day shutdown, the United States government officially reopened on Wednesday, November 12, following the passage of an interim funding bill in the House of Representatives. The bill was approved by a vote of 222 to 209 and signed into law by the President of the United States later that day. While the bill restored government operations, it excluded a key demand from House Democrats—renewal of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act—setting the stage for another potential shutdown after January 30, 2026.
Although the shutdown has ended, the recovery will not be immediate. Delays are expected in food assistance programs, federal payroll processing, environmental permitting, and normalization of air travel. Additionally, the release of critical economic data—including employment figures, consumer price index (CPI), and gross domestic product (GDP)—remains uncertain. October reports may never be published, leaving policymakers with limited visibility and complicating fiscal planning.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the shutdown likely shaved 1.5 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP growth. However, a rebound of 2.2 percentage points is projected for the first quarter of 2026. In response, analysts at UOB Group have revised their growth forecasts: United States GDP growth for 2025 is now expected to be 1.5% (down from 1.7%), while the 2026 projection has been raised to 1.7% (up from 1.5%).
Despite the reopening, the risk of another prolonged shutdown remains high. If a new funding agreement is not reached by January 30, critical sectors such as aviation, public services, and economic recovery efforts could face renewed disruption. Lawmakers are expected to revisit the issue of healthcare subsidies in December, but political divisions suggest that consensus may be difficult to achieve.
Financial markets responded positively to the reopening, with major indices posting gains. The President of the United States described the resolution as a “victory for the people,” while critics warned that the underlying political tensions remain unresolved. Analysts caution that without bipartisan cooperation, the threat of future shutdowns could continue to undermine economic stability and public trust.