BTC range-bound between support and resistance
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have shown conflicting flows this week:
Monday: $1.15 million in inflows
Tuesday: $523.98 million in inflows
Wednesday: $277.98 million in outflows
These fluctuations suggest that institutional investors remain cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
Glassnode’s weekly report confirms that Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading within a defined range between $97,000 and $111,000. Key resistance is located near $116,000, where a dense supply cluster from top buyers continues to cap upward momentum.
The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (STH Realized P/L Ratio) has dropped below 0.21, indicating that over 80% of realized value came from coins sold at a loss—signaling intense selling pressure and exhaustion among sellers.
The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap also shows a dense supply zone between $106,000 and $118,000, where many investors are exiting near breakeven. This latent supply overhang continues to suppress bullish momentum.
Low funding rates, declining open interest, and ETF outflows all point to subdued speculative activity. Options traders are still favoring downside protection near the psychological $100,000 level.
On Monday, Bitcoin retested the $106,453 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the April 7 low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,299. However, BTC declined by 4.11% over the next two days and is now stabilizing above $102,800.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, approaching the neutral 50 level. A move above 50 could signal fading bearish momentum.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is converging, with shrinking red histogram bars suggesting a potential bullish crossover.
If BTC breaks above the $106,453 resistance, the next target would be the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $109,369. On the downside, a break below the $100,353 support could open the path toward $97,000.