Dollar strengthens as Euro loses ground
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive day, trading at 1.1515 at the time of writing on Thursday. This decline follows a sharp reversal from the 1.1600 area on Wednesday. The US Dollar has strengthened broadly, supported by a hawkish tone in the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes and cautious sentiment ahead of the long-awaited Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released on Wednesday revealed that many policymakers opposed cutting interest rates in December, warning that such a move could undermine efforts to control inflation and erode public trust in the central bank.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10 meeting has dropped below 30%, down from 50% on Wednesday and over 90% a month ago. In response, the US Dollar has firmed up.
In the Eurozone, Construction Output data for September showed an accelerated decline. Later in the day, the European Commission’s preliminary Consumer Confidence Index for November may offer further insight into the Euro’s outlook.
In the United States, market attention is centered on the September NFP report and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. Economists expect a net gain of 50,000 jobs, up from 22,000 in August. The Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%, while Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to grow by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year.
The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to show a second consecutive monthly contraction, albeit less severe than October’s -12.8 reading. November’s figure is projected at -3.1.
EUR/USD remains in a short-term bearish trend after being rejected near 1.1650 last week. Bears are now testing the psychological support at 1.1500. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, suggesting potential consolidation.
If the decline continues, support may emerge near the November 5 low at 1.1470, followed by the bottom of the descending channel around 1.1430. On the upside, resistance lies at the November 18–19 highs near 1.1600, with further barriers at 1.1630 and 1.1670.