Pound Sterling rises as US Dollar weakens
On Friday, the Pound Sterling (GBP) traded 0.1% higher against the US Dollar (USD), reaching 1.3360 during the European session. The GBP/USD pair strengthened as the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a five‑week low near 98.75, with traders confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 87%. These dovish expectations are largely driven by weak labor market conditions in the United States. The ADP report showed that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, while forecasts had anticipated an increase of 5,000.
Minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that policymakers acknowledged downside risks in the labor market and the need for looser monetary conditions. However, several members opposed a rate cut in December.
The Pound Sterling has outperformed major peers over the past week, supported by the new UK budget and an upward revision in PMI data. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced plans to raise £26 billion in taxes to address fiscal gaps without burdening households.
Concerns that the government might breach fiscal rules and trigger higher gilt yields were eased as the budget passed the bond market test and included large‑scale investment plans. Meanwhile, final S&P Global data showed the Composite PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.2 in November, signaling stronger business activity and easing recession fears.
The GBP/USD pair trades near its monthly high of 1.3385, posted Thursday, and remains above the rising 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3227, maintaining a positive short‑term bias. The 14‑day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.77 reflects bullish momentum.
A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3402 would reinforce the bullish tone and open room for continuation toward the October 17 high of 1.3471. Failure to break this barrier could keep the pair consolidating, with pullbacks leaning toward the 38.2% Fibonacci area and trend support.
The Pound Sterling benefits from several supportive factors:
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the Bank of England’s December 18 meeting, where a rate cut is expected to support labor market conditions. This decision could determine the next trajectory for GBP/USD.