Bitcoin consolidates as Fed signals pause
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a consolidation phase, hovering around $92,000 on Friday as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s cautious December rate cut and its implications for risk assets. BTC price action approaches a key descending trendline that could determine its next directional move. Meanwhile, institutional flows into Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) showed mild inflows, and Strategy Inc. added more BTC to its treasury reserve.
Bitcoin started the week on a positive note, extending its weekend recovery and holding above $92,600 on Tuesday. However, momentum softened on Wednesday, with BTC closing at $92,015 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In a widely expected move, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% but signaled a likely pause in January.
Policymakers projected only a one-quarter-percentage-point cut for 2026, the same outlook as in September, which tempered market expectations of two rate cuts and contributed to short-term pressure on risk assets.
The Fed’s cautious tone, combined with disappointing Oracle earnings, contributed to a brief risk-off move. These factors weighed on riskier assets, with Bitcoin sliding to a low of $89,260 before rebounding and finishing above $92,500 on Thursday.
With no major United States data releases ahead, crypto markets will now look to FOMC member speeches and broader risk sentiment for direction at the end of the week. BTC is likely to consolidate in the near term unless a significant catalyst emerges.
On the geopolitical front, the President of the United States is reportedly “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine, according to a White House spokeswoman on Thursday. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the United States was pushing the country to cede land to Russia as part of an agreement to end the nearly four-year war. These lingering tensions and stalled peace talks continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, limiting appetite for risk and contributing to Bitcoin’s consolidation.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows mild signs of improvement. According to SoSoValue data, United States-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of $237.44 million through Thursday, following a mild outflow of $87.77 million a week earlier. These weekly inflows remain small relative to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, ETF inflows should intensify.
On the corporate front, Strategy Inc. announced on Monday that it purchased 10,624 Bitcoin for $962.7 million between December 1–7 at an average price of $90,615. The firm currently holds 660,624 BTC, valued at $49.35 billion. According to Walter Bloomberg’s post on X, Strategy still retains substantial capacity to raise additional capital, potentially allowing for further large-scale Bitcoin accumulation.
CryptoQuant’s weekly report highlights that selling pressure on Bitcoin is beginning to ease. Exchange deposits have declined as large players reduced their transfers to exchanges. The share of total deposits from large players dropped from a 24-hour average high of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of Wednesday. The average deposit also declined by 36%, from 1.1 BTC on November 22 to 0.7 BTC.
CryptoQuant concludes that if selling pressure remains low, a relief rally could push Bitcoin back to $99,000. This level marks the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, a resistance zone during bear markets. Beyond that, key resistances lie at $102,000 (one-year moving average) and $112,000 (Trader On-chain Realized price).
The Copper Research report suggests that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle hasn’t died—it has evolved. Since the launch of spot ETFs, BTC has exhibited repeatable Cost-Basis Return Cycles. Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet: “Since spot ETFs launched, Bitcoin has moved in repeatable mini-cycles where it pulls back to its cost basis and then rebounds by around 70%. With BTC now trading near its $84,000 cost basis, that pattern points to a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days. If cost basis rises 10–15% as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a target range of $138,000–$148,000.”
Bitcoin posted a 17.67% loss in November, disappointing traders who had anticipated a rally based on its strong historical returns for the month. December has historically been a positive month for Bitcoin, delivering an average return of 4.55%.
Looking at quarterly data, Q4 has historically been the best quarter for BTC, with an average return of 77.38%. Still, performance in the last three months of 2025 has been underwhelming so far, posting a 19% loss.
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the price finding support around the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,809, posting two consecutive green candles following a four-week correction that began in late October. As of this week, BTC is trading slightly higher, holding above $92,400.
If BTC continues its recovery, it could extend the rally toward the 50-week EMA at $99,182. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart reads 40, pointing upward and indicating fading bearish momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, RSI should move above the neutral level of 50.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 (drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,199 set in October) on Wednesday. However, on Thursday, BTC rebounded after retesting its $90,000 psychological level.
If BTC breaks above the descending trendline and closes above the $94,253 resistance level, it could extend the rally toward the $100,000 psychological level. The RSI on the daily chart is stable near the neutral 50 level, suggesting a lack of near-term momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD showed a bullish crossover at the end of November, which remains intact, supporting the bullish thesis.
If BTC resumes its downward correction, the first key support is at $85,569, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.