Gold targets $4,380 after resistance breach
Gold (XAU/USD) prolongs its uptrend for the fourth straight day and climbs beyond the $4,300 mark, hitting a fresh high since October 21 during the first half of the European session on Friday. The United States Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains close to a two-month low, touched on Thursday, amid the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish outlook. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to drive flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
In a widely expected move, the Fed lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points on Wednesday and projected just one more rate cut in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that the United States labor market has significant downside risks and that the central bank does not want its policy to push down on job creation. This fueled speculation about two more rate cuts next year and, in turn, favors the XAU/USD bulls.
Stalled talks on the Russia–Ukraine peace deal keep geopolitical risks in play and turn out to be another factor benefiting Gold. On Thursday, a spokeswoman said the President of the United States is “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine and does not want any more talk. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the United States was pushing the country to cede land to Russia as part of an agreement to end the nearly four-year war. These tensions continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, offsetting the risk-on mood and supporting safe-haven flows into Gold.
The overnight strong move confirmed a fresh bullish breakout through a nearly two-week-old trading range hurdle around the $4,245–$4,250 region. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and are still away from overbought levels, suggesting that the path of least resistance for Gold remains to the upside.
Any pullback toward the aforementioned resistance breakpoint could be seen as a buying opportunity. This should limit losses for the XAU/USD pair near the $4,220–$4,218 region, followed by the $4,200 mark and the $4,170–$4,165 support area. A convincing break below the latter might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.
On the upside, the $4,300 mark now acts as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAU/USD pair could climb to the next relevant resistance near the $4,328–$4,330 region. Momentum could extend further and allow Gold to aim toward challenging the all-time peak around the $4,380 zone, touched in October. Some follow-through buying beyond the $4,400 round figure will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the commodity’s well-established uptrend.