Gold strengthens on Fed expectations
Gold price (XAU/USD) surged to a fresh all-time high during early European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal has gained over 10% in the past month and nearly 70% in 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, which have significantly boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Market expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve of the United States in the coming year remain a key supportive factor for gold. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, enhancing its appeal.
Markets are currently pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2026, amid signs of easing inflation and sluggish job growth in the United States economy.
Traders are closely watching the preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3, scheduled for release later on Tuesday. Forecasts suggest the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2.
A stronger-than-expected GDP report could lift the US Dollar (USD) and exert short-term downward pressure on gold prices. Additional data on Durable Goods Orders, Industrial Production, and ADP Employment will also be released on the same day.
Beyond economic factors, geopolitical tensions continue to play a major role in driving safe-haven demand:
The President of the United States stated that the country may retain or sell the crude oil seized off the coast of Venezuela
The United States also intends to keep the seized vessels
Russia intensified its strikes on the southern Ukrainian region of Odesa, causing widespread power outages and threatening maritime infrastructure
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said he is likely to remain on the Board until the Senate confirms a new central bank chair
Markets currently assign only a 20% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in January, following three consecutive quarter-point reductions
Gold continues to edge higher on the day. According to the daily chart, the bullish outlook remains intact:
Price holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating a strengthening trend
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, signaling an overbought condition
This setup suggests the potential for further upside, though a brief consolidation or pullback may precede the next leg higher.
Next psychological resistance: $4,400
If breached, the next upside target: $4,450
Initial support: $4,338 (December 22 low)
Secondary support: $4,300 (December 17 low)
Gold has reached a historic high, fueled by geopolitical tensions, rate cut expectations, and economic uncertainty. While the uptrend remains strong, technical overbought signals and upcoming US macro data could influence short-term price action.
Traders are now closely monitoring political and economic developments to assess gold’s trajectory heading into the final days of 2025.