Euro stabilizes as policy divergence widens
The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1800 on Wednesday, up 0.10% on the day, stabilizing after recent gains. This level marks the highest price since late September. With Christmas holidays approaching, trading volumes have thinned, pushing the market into a cautious, wait‑and‑see mode.
Despite strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the United States, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter — above the 3.8% growth in Q2 and exceeding market expectations.
However, this growth has been driven largely by corporate investment in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, while labor market momentum and consumer demand remain relatively weak. As a result, the data offered only temporary support for the Dollar.
Recent comments from the President of the United States have added additional pressure on the Dollar. By criticizing Federal Reserve policy and calling for lower interest rates despite strong market performance, the President has reignited concerns about central bank independence.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Dollar against a basket of major currencies, is now trading near a multi‑week low.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign a high probability to multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a more accommodative outlook than the central bank’s official projections.
This view is reinforced by the composition of US economic growth: strong corporate investment but weaker demand from lower‑ and middle‑income households, constrained by inflation and a softer labor market.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its three key interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the institution is in a stable position and that all options remain on the table. Money markets currently price in only a limited chance of an ECB rate cut in early 2026 — a factor that may help limit downside pressure on the Euro.
Overall, the year‑end environment — combined with expectations of a more accommodative US monetary policy and a cautious stance from the ECB — supports EUR/USD consolidation near the 1.1800 level. This stabilization, following recent gains and amid thin liquidity, reflects the market’s wait‑and‑see approach ahead of new data and policy signals in 2026.