Oil Steadies Near Lows

Oil Prices Rise Despite Global Uncertainty

WTI holds near $57.50 as supply risks persist

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices stabilized near $57.30 per barrel during Monday’s European session, recovering from a 2.5% drop in the previous trading day. The rebound comes as investors reassess global supply risks, particularly amid potential delays in a Ukraine peace agreement and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Ukraine peace talks show progress, but no breakthrough

The President of the United States stated that discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had made “a lot of progress,” but emphasized that no clear breakthrough had been reached on territorial issues. According to Bloomberg, the President noted that a final deal could still take several weeks — a timeline that adds uncertainty to regional oil flows and global supply expectations.

Venezuela and Nigeria developments add pressure

Analysts are closely watching enforcement actions by the United States against Venezuelan oil exports, as well as potential fallout from recent U.S. military strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria. Nigeria, which produces approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, could face production setbacks if regional tensions escalate further.

China’s fiscal expansion signals demand support

China announced plans to increase fiscal spending in 2026, signaling continued support for economic growth. This move could bolster oil demand in the medium term, offering a counterbalance to supply-side risks and helping stabilize crude prices.

WTI on track for steep annual loss

Despite the recent rebound, WTI remains on course for a more than 20% annual decline in 2025 — its sharpest yearly drop since 2020. The downturn reflects widespread expectations of a global supply surplus in 2026, alongside slowing demand growth in key regions.

Summary: Fragile stability amid layered risks

WTI’s current stability near $57.50 reflects a complex mix of geopolitical and macroeconomic forces:

- Delays in Ukraine peace negotiations

- U.S. enforcement actions in Venezuela and Nigeria

- China’s fiscal stimulus outlook

- Anticipated global supply surplus in 2026

As markets approach year-end, thin liquidity and elevated uncertainty may amplify price swings. Traders remain cautious, with any new developments likely to trigger sharp moves in crude oil prices.