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Global FX & Trade Tensions

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Global FX & Trade Tensions

Pound dips as BoE flags

🌍 Global FX & Trade Tensions
Indian rupee pressure
The rupee headed lower today amid revived global trade tensions after U.S. President Trump announced fresh 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico imports. The rupee is forecasted around ₹85.90–85.94 to the dollar, with significant impact on regional currencies and markets 

Pound dips as BoE flags rate cuts
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey hinted at the possibility of earlier-than-expected rate cuts if the UK labor market weakens. This dovish signal, together with weak economic data, pushed the pound to a three-week low 

🧭 Central Bank Moves & Currency Flows
Russia ups FX sales
Starting July 7, Russia will ramp up daily foreign currency and gold sales by about 31%, stepping in to slow its sharply strengthened ruble (up ~45% YTD). The central bank aims to manage external imbalances amid sanctions 

India’s forex reserves dip
As of July 4, India’s reserves fell by about USD 3 billion to around USD 699.7 billion, reflecting tighter global liquidity and capital outflows 

🏦 U.S. Dollar & Fed Outlook
Dollar remains volatile
Goldman Sachs warns the dollar is behaving more like a "risky" asset—sensitive to both stocks and political headlines—echoing market stress from trade and Fed uncertainty 

🔍 Strategy Tips for Forex Traders
Stay alert to headline risk—especially around trade tariffs and new policy announcements—and how these affect major currency pairs like USD/INR, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD.

Watch BoE signals and UK labor data closely, as additional dovish comments could weaken the pound further.

Consider safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF) in the short term if trade tensions escalate.

Track central bank liquidity moves, noting especially Russia and India's forex actions, for clues on capital flows and emerging-market currency pressures.

📌 If you're trading FX, focus on these key currency pairs: USD/INR, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY—and keep an eye on central bank communications and trade headlines.

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