Eurozone Rates Remain Unchanged
Gold drifts lower amid risk-on mood and USD uptick, ahead of US CPI
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses part of the previous day's move up, though the downside potential seems limited. A generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick undermines the commodity. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive amid firming expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs next week. This, in turn, might continue to lend some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Persistent trade-related uncertainties, rising geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in France and Japan should contribute to limiting the downside for the Gold price. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the United States consumer inflation figures for cues about the possibility of a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to bullion.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls turn cautious ahead of US CPI report; Fed rate cut bets could limit losses
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record highs on Wednesday, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped over 1% to hit a fresh record high on Thursday. This dents demand for traditional safe-haven assets and fails to assist Gold in building on the previous day's positive move.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the United States Producer Price Index declined to 2.6% on a yearly basis in August from 3.3% in the previous month. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% YoY compared to 3.7% in July.
The lack of producer price pressures, despite import tariffs, could be seen as a sign of softening domestic demand against the backdrop of a struggling labor market. This reaffirms market expectations that the United States Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week.
Furthermore, traders are pricing in a small possibility of a jumbo rate cut on September 17 and expect the Fed to deliver three 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of this year. This should cap the US Dollar recovery from its lowest level since July 28 and support the non-yielding yellow metal.
On the trade-related front, the President of the United States has urged the European Union to slap 100% tariffs on China and India as part of efforts to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine. Last month, the President of the United States raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, citing continuing purchases of Russian oil.
Meanwhile, Poland shot down Russian drones on Wednesday that were flying over its airspace after completing a mission in western Ukraine. This is the first time a NATO member nation has fired shots in Russia’s war on Ukraine, raising the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions.
Furthermore, the President of the United States has threatened tougher sanctions against Russia after its heaviest aerial bombardment on Ukraine, which involved at least 810 drones and 13 missiles. This could further benefit the precious metal's safe-haven status and contribute to limiting any meaningful corrective slide.
Gold could accelerate the corrective pullback below $3,600 amid still overbought daily RSI
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory and backs the case for some near-term consolidation or a further pullback. However, any further slide below the overnight swing low, around the $3,620 area, could find some support near the $3,600 round-figure mark ahead of the weekly trough, around the $3,580 region. A convincing break below the latter could pave the way for deeper losses and drag Gold towards the $3,565–3,560 intermediate support en route to last Thursday's swing low, around the $3,510 region.
On the flip side, the Asian session top, around the $3,649 area, followed by the overnight swing high, around the $3,657–3,658 region, might now act as immediate hurdles, above which Gold could retest the all-time peak, around the $3,675 zone. Some follow-through buying could allow the XAU/USD pair to build on the recent breakout momentum and aim towards conquering the $3,700 mark. Bulls, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and pause near the said handle, which could act as a strong near-term barrier for the commodity.