Gold retreats as dollar strength persists
During Tuesday’s trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) retreated below the $4,320 level, continuing its correction from record highs. However, sustained selling pressure has not yet emerged. The primary driver of the downward move remains the strengthening demand for the United States Dollar, which has gained for the third consecutive day. Additionally, the upbeat tone in global equity markets has led investors to shift away from safe-haven assets like gold.
Despite the stronger dollar, investors remain concerned about the economic fallout from the prolonged United States government shutdown, ongoing trade tensions, and geopolitical crises. These factors, combined with dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, could limit further dollar appreciation and indirectly support gold prices. Analysts caution against assuming gold has already peaked, noting that deeper corrections are unlikely without stronger selling pressure.
In Tuesday’s Asian session, the United States Dollar continued to attract buyers for the third straight day, exerting downward pressure on gold. Meanwhile, a modest improvement in United States–China trade relations has boosted risk sentiment, reducing the appeal of safe-haven assets.
On Friday, the President of the United States stated that full tariffs on China would not be sustained. On Sunday, he added that the two countries were close to reaching a “fantastic” deal, but warned that failure to do so could result in tariffs as high as 155% on Chinese goods. These remarks have shifted market focus toward next week’s trade negotiations.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders have nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at both the October and December Federal Reserve meetings. This could prevent significant dollar appreciation and continue to act as a tailwind for gold.
Meanwhile, concerns over the prolonged United States government shutdown persist. The Senate has rejected reopening the government for the eleventh time, extending the closure into its third week. The President of the United States has accused opponents of blocking efforts to curb illegal immigration.
The President of Russia has reiterated demands for Ukraine to fully cede the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war, offering to relinquish parts of southern Ukraine in return. However, the President of Ukraine has repeatedly stated that no occupied territory will be surrendered. These unresolved tensions continue to fuel geopolitical risk, which may further support gold prices.
Traders are likely to await Friday’s United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. These figures will play a critical role in shaping the direction of the dollar and the next move for the XAU/USD pair—especially ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting starting next Tuesday.
Gold has repeatedly failed to break through the resistance zone between $4,375 and $4,380, while the daily RSI remains in overbought territory. These repeated failures may signal buyer exhaustion. A drop below $4,330 could attract dip buyers, with $4,300 acting as key support. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $4,240 and $4,200 support zones.
On the upside, buyers are watching for a sustained break above $4,380. A move beyond the psychological $4,400 level could launch gold into a new bullish phase, continuing the uptrend that has developed over the past two months.